Issue price 40.25 yuan, flouting shares purchase interpretation, February 9 hit new guidelines
Hello, everyone, I am quantum panda, in view of the gradual opening of the registration system and the gradual normalization of the ipo break, and my ipo also encountered a break situation…So decided to launch a hit new must-read series, specializing in the analysis of new shares of the purchase value.Since this part of the study was just started recently and has not been verified by long-term data, there may be some risks.What I can promise is that I will tell you how I analyze it and I will follow the plan. What I can’t promise is that I will not break.Factor Description Factor 1: Comparable industries and enterprises.Look at the business scope of the enterprise, judge the subordinate industry, and select comparable companies with larger similarity, there is of course the most convenient thing.Factor 2: issue price and issue p/E ratio.Reference to the recent break situation, the higher the stock price break risk is greater, this factor is not very important.Under the registration system, ipo pricing and valuation tend to be more market-oriented, and the value of any enterprise is impossible to get rid of the industry fundamentals and enterprise fundamentals, so the price-earnings ratio is the absolute key element of ipo analysis.Excellent companies can indeed get higher valuations because of their above-industry growth, so the third step to filter is growth.Factor 3: Performance.Are the previous revenue and profit of the enterprise growing steadily or declining year by year?Whether there is a large fluctuation, if there is a large fluctuation, we need to focus on whether there is a suspicion of adjusting statements for listing and valuation.Factor 4: Market sentiment.Undeniably, in addition to the fundamentals of the new issue, the emotional weight is also very large, especially for some hot track capital speculation will be higher, so this part of the analysis will take a comprehensive consideration of appropriate increase, of course, everything still has to start from the fundamentals.Let’s move on to the official content.Basic information of the company: Its full name is “Jiangyin Flao Automobile Parts Co., LTD.”, and its main business is the research and development, production and sales of nylon automobile pipes and connectors and other products.The main products include power system connection pipes, cooling system connection pipes, connectors, etc. It is one of the few domestic enterprises that enter into the supply system of joint venture brand oEMS.Automobile nylon pipeline refers to the use of nylon (scientific name is polyamide (PA), an engineering plastic) under high temperature and high pressure mechanical strength and other excellent physical and chemical properties to manufacture automobile fluid pipeline.Automobile fluid pipeline refers to the tube parts such as hose and hard pipe that connect various parts. The material of hose generally includes rubber and nylon, and the material of hard pipe generally includes metal.The function of automobile fluid pipeline is to transfer various media (such as fuel oil, oil, coolant, gas, etc.) between various parts, which is an important part to ensure the performance and safe operation of automobile.Because automobile fluid pipeline is mainly used in high and low temperature, high pressure, corrosive medium environment, installed in a compact and limited space, and always in the fatigue state of frequent vibration in the operation of the automobile, so the design and verification technology of its material, size, structure and performance has higher requirements.Compared with the traditional metal pipe and rubber pipe, automobile nylon pipe has more advantages in pipe weight, processing molding, high and low temperature resistance, chemical resistance and other aspects, so it fits the trend of automobile energy conservation and emission reduction standards in recent years.At present, the main application scenarios of automobile nylon pipe include power system (AKF pipe, fuel pipe, crankcase vent pipe, etc.), cooling system (cooling water pipe, cooling pipe, etc.), braking system (vacuum brake pipe, hydraulic brake pipe, etc.), steering system (high and low pressure power steering pipe) and body accessory system, etc.Standard list shares of automobile nylon pipeline mainly includes power system connection pipeline, cooling system connection pipeline.Automobile fittings as the parts of the pipeline system connected or disconnected, is under the condition of a certain temperature, the environment, to have enough precision, mechanical strength, durability, heat resistance, chemical resistance and using performance of components, the main role for automotive between pipe and pipe, pipe and the water tank, heater and the connection between the radiator and other components,This kind of products improve the efficiency of disassembly and assembly of pipeline system and sealing effect, which is conducive to ensure the consistency of assembly quality and product.Business is simple, the simple understanding is car hose and connector, also need to pay attention to new energy vehicles is due to the battery and motor cooling system will increase the demand for the hose, so we can improve the new energy vehicles accounted for slightly hedge industry downturn, but judging from the revenue structure, cooling system, revenue accounted for only about 3%, earnings co., LTD.In terms of the specific revenue structure, the main revenue is power system connection pipeline, accounting for about 60%-70% of the revenue, followed by connectors, the total revenue of the two accounted for more than 90%.The main products of the company have been widely used in Volkswagen, Audi, Skoda, Chase, Ford, Peugeot and other well-known brands of many models, with domestic well-known oems and excellent parts manufacturers to establish a stable cooperative relationship, in the automobile nylon pipe manufacturing industry has a high brand awareness and industry status.The secondary industry corresponding to Shenwan is auto parts, and the comparable listed companies are Chuanhuan Technology (300547), Pengling (300375), Tenglong (603158), Zhongding (000887) and Tempu (605255).Issue situation: the current market value of the enterprise is 2.717 billion yuan, the newly issued market value is 910 million yuan, the issue price is 40.25 yuan, the issue price ratio is 29.99, PE-TTM24.31 X, the maximum application needs the market value of 60,000 yuan.The PE-TTM of automobile parts industry is 37.81x, chuhuan Technology is 28.16X, Pengling is -31.86X, Tenglong is 29.54X, And Zhongding is 20.99x.The PE-TTM of Temple stock is 33.07x.Performance: It is expected to achieve operating revenue of 465-510 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year change of -26.45% to -19.33%.In 2021, the company expects to realize net profit attributable to the owner of the parent company of 93 million to 106 million yuan, a year-on-year change of -25.09% to -14.62%;Net profit attributable to the owner of the parent company after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was between 90 million yuan and 103 million yuan, changing from -25.50% to -14.74% over the same period of the previous year. Operating revenue in 2020 was 63,2,199.9 million yuan, and revenue in 2019 was 56,2,715,100 yuan.In 2018, the revenue was 319.8040 million yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 40.6%.In 2020, non-return to mother net profit was deducted 12,080.01 million yuan, in 2019, non-return to mother net profit was deducted 87.6992 million yuan, in 2018, non-return to mother net profit was deducted 40.7593 million yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 72.16%.From past performance to see revenue and profit growth is very high, to grow faster than revenue and profit, but look from the 2021 results, revenue and profits slid in to decline in revenue, didn’t see that was found the profit decline below the revenue, the main reason is that companies recommended localization, reduce the production cost increased gross profit margins.Through further analysis of the revenue structure, it can be found that the revenue of the main product “power system connection pipeline” declined significantly, which is mainly caused by the decline of orders from downstream “mass” customers affected by the shortage of automotive chips and other factors.In terms of specific gross margin, the gross margin of main business from 2018 to the first half of 2021 was 24.31%, 27.00%, 29.61% and 31.03% respectively, showing an increasing trend year by year.Compared with the industry, it is at a medium level, but it is not very comparable due to the differences of metal and plastic pipes and other products, and the implementation of different auto factory standards.From the fundamentals of the company, the past performance was good but there will be a decline in 2021, and the decline is expected to continue from the reasons.From the issue situation, gem issue, issue price is slightly higher, issue earnings ratio is slightly higher, PE-TTM is also slightly higher.Finally summarized as follows, the fundamentals are down, the issue side is also on the high side.Explain buy suggestion: abandon explain buy, my operation: abandon.Purchase suggestion: recommend purchase, fundamentals and issues are good, break probability is small.Cautious purchase, fundamentals or issues there are certain problems, 50% break probability.Give up purchase, the fundamentals or issuance of a larger problem, the probability of breaking.That’s all for this post, please feel free to like and follow us. We’ll see you next time.